Climate change increases the number of landslides at the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian and Mediterranean regions

Abstract

Abstract During the next few decades, changes in rainfall frequency and magnitude are expected to have major impacts on landscape evolution, social, and economic aspects of human society. We focus on seasonal rainfall variations by the end of the twenty-first century to define affected landslide-prone areas, future landslide alerts and the impact of landslides on landscape development in the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian, and Mediterranean region. A moderate and a worst-case climate scenario from CMIP5 global climate simulations were considered to determine the impact of rainfall on the two most common types of landslides in region, shallow and deep-seated landslides. The observed changes in the occurrence of shallow landslides are significant, especially in the winter months, where we can expect more landslide-prone areas compared to the baseline period. Shallow landslides will have a greater impact on the landscape in spring and summer than deep-seated landslides, especially in vineyards.