Prostranstvennaâ Èkonomika (Oct 2024)
Industry of Russian Regions Under New Anti-Russian Sanctions
Abstract
The study is devoted to the analysis of the rates and factors of industrial growth in Russian regions during the period of the Special Military Operation and new anti-Russian sanctions in 2022–2023. The research used cartographic, comparative, correlation analysis, and econometric modeling. The study showed multidirectional growth trends in the mining and manufacturing industries in Russian regions in 2022 and 2023, as well as different patterns of Russian regions during the period of new anti-Russian sanctions. Interregional differences in the growth rates of industry and its main sectors, both during the period of stagnation (2022) and moderate growth (2023), turned out to be huge. Over two years, the gap in industrial growth rates ranged from –26.8% in the Kaliningrad region to +38.3% in the Bryansk region. Using correlation and regression analysis, the influence of five groups of factors on the dynamics of industrial production in Russian regions was tested. Econometric analysis showed a statistically significant positive impact of the quality of human capital, as well as the share of the communications and telecommunications industry in gross value added on the growth of industrial production in Russian regions in both 2022 and 2023, and a negative impact on this growth of the degree of openness of the economy, expressed in the dependence on imports, exports and foreign investment, although the importance of these factors has varied over time. State participation in the economy, manifested in the share of state ownership and growth in budget expenditures, has become a more prominent factor in industrial growth in 2023. In the same year, the share of the private sector ceased to be a significant factor in the reduction in industrial growth rates, as it was in 2022. In 2023, an important factor in industrial growth was the share of manufacturing industries in the region’s GRP
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