Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry

Abstract

The introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks related to the delays in the accomplishment of investment programs in the Polish power industry. Three scenarios were prepared for balancing the deficiency of about 3 GW of power and 20 TWh of electricity in the national power grid in the years 2031–2040, which may emerge as a result of the delayed accomplishment of investment programs, particularly in nuclear energy. The first scenario presents a variant entailing the rapid phasing out of coal and the replacement of the decommissioned power units with new gas-powered units, where the missing power volume would be partially balanced by import, and partially through gas-based production in the new power units. The second scenario assumes that the missing power would be balanced by retaining the existing, older coal-powered units, whereas the required electricity would be compensated by import. The third scenario involves the production of the missing volume of electricity using coal with CO2 capture in existing or new coal-powered units.

Keywords

• energy policy
• forecast
• just transition
• risk analysis