Data-Driven Reliability Prediction for District Heating Networks

Abstract

As district heating networks age, current asset management practices, such as those relying on static life expectancies and age- and rule-based approaches, need to be replaced by data-driven asset management. As an alternative to physics-of-failure models that are typically preferred in the literature, this paper explores the application of more accessible traditional and novel machine learning-enabled reliability models for analyzing the reliability of district heating pipes and demonstrates how common data deficiencies can be accommodated by modifying the models’ likelihood expressions. The tested models comprised the Herz, Weibull, and the Neural Weibull Proportional Hazard models. An assessment of these models on data from an actual district heating network in Funen, Denmark showed that the relative youth of the network complicated the validation of the models’ distributional assumptions. However, a comparative evaluation of the models showed that there is a significant benefit in employing data-driven reliability modeling as they enable pipes to be differentiated based on the their working conditions and intrinsic features. Therefore, it is concluded that data-driven reliability models outperform current asset management practices such as age-based vulnerability ranking.

Keywords

• reliability analysis
• district heating
• pipe failure prediction
• Weibull proportional hazard model
• Herz model
• data-driven asset management