Data–driven analysis of Romania's renewable energy landscape and investment uncertainties

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a significant transformation in the energy sector in the European Union as a whole. The shift towards producing renewable energy has had a significant impact on the economic development of most countries, requiring substantial investments through public procurement. This study aims to analyse the evolution of the energy sector in Romania from an economic perspective by using a data-driven approach. The data used in this research is collected from publicly available sources and pertains to energy production and public acquisitions in Romania, carried out through the Electronic Public Procurement System. By using a mixed approach, combining documentary analysis, literature review, and predictive modelling, the study reveals a shift towards more sustainable energy options. There is a significant decrease in the production of thermal power and an increase in solar and wind power. The findings provide an overview and potential scenario of Romania's electricity production levels in 2023, shedding light on the relative uncertainties associated with such a transition. The findings also suggest a clear and growing commitment in Romania towards the adoption of alternative energy sources, as reflected in the trends of public procurement. These procurement trends offer a valuable perspective on policy-making, investment planning, and progress monitoring in Romania's energy transition. Despite the inherent uncertainties in such a transition, the study demonstrates Romania's potential in terms of diverse sources for electricity production as well as the role of public procurement in achieving energy transformation.

Keywords

• Energy production
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Public procurement
• Green energy
• Renewable energy