Sensitivity and elasticity analysis of novel corona virus transmission model: A mathematical approach

Abstract

The deadly corona virus continues to pound the globe mercilessly compelling mathematical models and computational simulations which might prove effective tools to enable global efforts to estimate key transmission parameters involved in the system. We propose a mathematical model using a set of non-linear differential equations to account for the spread of the COVID-19 infection with special compartment class isolation or quarantine and estimate the model parameters by fitting the model with reported data of the ongoing pandemic situation in India. The basic reproduction number is defined and local stability analysis is carried out at each equilibrium point in terms of the reproduction numberR0. The model is fitted mathematically and makes the data India specific. Additionally, we examined sensitivity analysis of the model. These outcomes recommend how to control the spread of corona, keeping in mind contact and recovery rate. Also we have investigated the elasticity of the basic reproduction number as a measure of control parameters of the dynamical system. Numerical simulations were also done to show that the proposed model is valid for the type and spread of the outbreak which happened in India.

Keywords

• Novel corona virus
• Reproduction number
• Sensitivity analysis
• Elasticity