Road Supply and Generated Traffic

Abstract

This paper estimates relationships between the supply of national highways, measured in lane-km, and the quantity of traffic, measured in vehicle-km traveled. The analysis uses a panel data set of annual observations for the years 1984 to 2003. By using a log-linear lag effect model designed to capture short and long term effects, the paper estimates that national highway vehicle-km traveled has a lane-km elasticity of 0.268 at the country level (Non-Seoul Metropolitan area) and 0.41 at the Seoul metropolitan area for the short term. For the long term, the paper estimates 0.8 for the country level and 1.23 for the Seoul metropolitan area. This paper finds conclusive evidence that increases in highway lane-miles have generated traffic over the period of study, however the increasing ratio of the generated traffic decreases gradually, particularly during the late 1980s.

Keywords

• 유발교통량(Generated Traffic)
• 고속도로(Highway Investment)
• 탄력성(Elasticity)