Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of county carbon emission performance in Zhejiang province under the background of county urbanization(县域城镇化背景下浙江省碳排放绩效的空间分异及其影响因素)

Abstract

In the latter phase of China's urbanization trajectory, counties are poised to assume a pivotal role. Consequently, investigating the interplay between urbanization input factors and carbon emission performance holds paramount significance. The present study, focusing on 51 counties and county-level cities in Zhejiang province, employs the Super SBM and MGWR models to delve into the temporal and spatial dynamics of county-level carbon emission performance in Zhejiang, as well as the influence of urbanization factor investments on this performance. The key findings are as follows:(1) Over the post time, county-level carbon emission performance has traversed two distinct developmental stages since 2000, transitioning from a general decline to an upward trend after 2010. This shift reflects the positive impact of pertinent policies on enhancing the green credentials of urbanization. Geographically, the carbon emission performance has transformed from a "strip distribution" pattern to a "north-south differentiation," with a polarization observed at the metropolitan, regional, and prefecture scales. This indicates that spatial factors may be influencing the evolution of performance. (2) The analysis of the determinants of carbon emission performance reveals a gradually increasing correlation between urbanization input factors and county-level carbon emission performance. Notably, apart from population density, other factors exhibit a strong relationship with performance. Moreover, the disparities in developmental trajectories and conditions among counties and cities lead to spatiotemporal variations in the impact of urbanization factors on performance. Within each county and city, there exist both commonalities and individualistic traits in the evolutionary path of carbon emission performance. The commonality lies in the relative equilibrium of factor benefit conversion levels, while the individuality stems from diverse developmental conditions and paths leading to the spatial differentiation of performance.在我国城镇化发展的下半程，县域将发挥更加重要的作用，研究城镇化投入要素与碳排放绩效的关系意义重大。以浙江省51个建制县及县级市为研究对象，运用基于非期望产出的超效率SBM（Super-SBM）模型和多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型，探究浙江省县域碳排放绩效的时空演化特征和城镇化要素投入对碳排放绩效的影响，得到：（1）在时间上，县域碳排放绩效自2000年以来经历了两个发展阶段，2010年后普遍由降转升，反映相关政策提高了城镇化绿色水平。在空间上，碳排放绩效由“条带分布”向“南北分异”演变，都市圈、县域和地市尺度均呈现两极分化的格局，表明空间因素或影响绩效演变。（2）碳排放绩效影响因子的识别表明，城镇化投入要素与县域碳排放绩效的相关性逐渐增强。除人口规模外，其余要素均与绩效存在较强相关性。此外，各县市发展路径与条件的差异导致城镇化要素对碳排放绩效的作用存在时空分异。各县市碳排放绩效演进路径共性规律与个性特征并存，共性为要素效益转换水平相对均衡，个性则为发展条件与路径不同导致其绩效存在空间分异。