A Markov – Chain Model for the Tuberculosis in Salah Aldeen City (1991-1999)

Abstract

This paper studies a time series for the number of infection of Tuberculosis of the lungs as a Markov – chain. We have made hypotheses concerning the number of infections in order to set the problem according to Markov-chain. Then I’ll try to find the characteristic of this chain that proved to be non-ergodic. I found the absorbing probability for the transient state and the expected absorbing time.