Економічний вісник університету (May 2021)
Tools and methods of conducting pre-foresight research of the economy of Ukraine
Abstract
Relevance of research topic. Increasing the stability of economic development of the Ukrainian economy requires improving the management system with the use of modern tools, one of which in recent years has become the Foresight methodology. Foresight forecasting as an innovative tool is the most effective in the field of national competitiveness in the face of rapid change. Foresight is a special technology for designing the future based on the consolidation of disparate visions that guide the roadmap for decision-making in the medium and long-term perspective. Formulation of the problem. The organization of Foresight research in Ukraine requires the use of the latest tools and expert research methods that are widely used in the world to design the future. The relevance of this study lies in a more specific and reasoned justification of the need to adapt the methodological tools of the foresight to Ukrainian realities. Analysis of recent research and publications. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study were the works of domestic and foreign scientists. In particular, focusing on the tools and methods used in the pre-Foresight stage of the study has been the focus of such foreign specialists as: E. Anselmo de Castro, N. Ya. Kalyuzhnova, M. Kinen, G. P. Korshunov, S. V. Kryukov, I. Miles, E. J. Mouse, S. Mendonya, R. Popper, R. Rohrbex, J. Tymen, B. Sapio, V. P. Tretyak, N. Chrysulakis, F. Schweizer, as well as domestic scientists: V. M. Geyts, S. I. Doroguntsov, L. V. Deineko, M. Z. Zgurovsky, T. K. Kvasha, M. O. Kizim, I. O. Kirnos, E. M. Libanova, O. I. Reshetnyak, O. F. Paladchenko, V. E. Khaustova, S. S. Shumska. Description of unexplored parts of the general problem. There is a lack of materials in the domestic scientific literature explaining the preparation for Foresight research, justification of the combination and choice of certain methods for case studies. Also, there is still no permanent practice of Foresight in Ukraine, which would be embodied in political decisions. The methodological tools for the implementation of Foresight procedures have not yet been adapted to the Ukrainian experience, which is due to the significant practical interest in the research topic and determined its theoretical and methodological value. Problem statement, the purpose of the study. Foresight research is an extremely promising tool for strategic management, the basis for the formation of the state strategy for the development of the country, region, and any field of activity. Given this fact, the task of this study is: taking into account international experience, to consistently explore a set of tools and methods used in domestic practice of planning and organizing Foresight research, which will ensure the introduction of scientific prediction technology on a regular basis and its improvement at all levels of public administration, local self-government, with the involvement of leading scientific institutions and public organizations. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the need to develop a comprehensive approach to the preparation of Foresight using the world’s best practices and adapt them to the conditions of medium and long-term forecasting of the national economy. Method or methodology for conducting research. In the process of solving the problem, in particular, the following general and special methods were used: methods of system analysis, analysis and synthesis, grouping; empirical methods of comparison and generalization; dialectical method of cognition and ascent from the concrete terms to the abstract terms. Presentation of the main material (results of research). The basis of the article on pre-Foresight research of the Ukrainian economy was the study of international experience and modern approaches to the organization of pre-Foresight research, in particular, on the practical aspects of organizing the development of Foresight in terms of determining tools and methods used in its conduct. The long-term experience of Ukraine in the implementation of Foresight on various research topics is analyzed and the differences in the application of a set of methods in the implementation of Foresight research are identified. It is pointed out that Ukraine needs a more consistent and comprehensive approach in planning and organizing Foresight research of various levels and different topics. Field of application of results. Generalization of the methodology for regulation and refinement of mechanisms (tools, methods, practical organizational techniques) is important for assessing the state of the economy at the stage of pre-Foresight research for conscious use in the state innovation policy of Ukraine in determining priorities of socio-economic and scientific-technical development. Conclusions. Given that Foresight has proven to be the most effective tool for choosing long-term priorities of socio-economic, scientific and technological development, it is necessary to deepen the research on forecasting as a key tool for the development and implementation of public policy.
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