Probabilistic approach for open pit bench slope stability analysis – A mine case study

Abstract

The geotechnical slope design of an open pit wall starts at the bench scale configuration. At this scale, the rock slope stability is governed primarily by the geological discontinuities within the rock mass and as a result, structurally-controlled failures (e.g. planar, wedge or toppling) are most likely to occur. The probabilistic approach offers a major advantage over the traditional deterministic method in that it accounts for the different degrees of variability and uncertainty often encountered in rock properties. This paper presents a bench slope stability assessment for an open pit mine in Peru using a probabilistic-based approach by coupling a kinematic analysis based on stereographic projection techniques followed by a kinetic analysis by means of the limit equilibrium method. Finally, these two probabilities are combined to provide an overall measure of the probability of failure (PoF) of the bench slope system. The case study is characterized by significant scatter in the geometrical and mechanical properties of the joints. Extensive surface mapping was conducted at 36 different sites following the ISRM suggested procedures. Several direct shear tests were carried out. It is shown that by combining field and laboratory measurements and engineering judgment, the probability density functions (PDF) of the discontinuity parameters can be obtained. These are then used in a Monte Carlo simulation process to compute both kinematic and kinetic probabilities of failure. The overall probability of failure aims to provide the design engineer with a tool to critically evaluate the bench performance from a geotechnical risk perspective and to provide a basis for future bench design optimization. Keywords: Mine safety, Rock slope stability, Kinematic analysis, Probability of failure, Limit equilibrium analysis, Case study