Evaluation of Potential Changes in Extreme Discharges over Some Watersheds in Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

Climate change has had strong impacts on water resources over the past decades in Côte d’Ivoire, but these impacts on hydrological extremes remain largely unknown in most watersheds. Thus, this work aimed to evaluate the trends and breakpoints in extreme discharge characteristics of five watersheds in Côte d’Ivoire over the period 1970 to 2017. Seven indexes were selected, namely the 5-day maximum flow (QX5-days), peak discharge (Qmaxan), maximum monthly discharge (VCX30), annual minimum discharge (Qminan), average monthly discharge (QMNA), discharge day rate (VCN7), and characteristic of low discharge (WFD). The analysis was done using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and the standard normal homogeneity test at a 5% significance level for heterogeneous and homogeneous periods of data. The results for the heterogeneous and homogeneous periods were similar, with a predominance of non-significant trends for high discharge, except for the VCX30 index, which showed a significant upward trend at Kahin station. A decreasing trend for QX5-days was found at Loboville station. The variables Qminan, QMNA, VCN7, and WDF show significant upward trends of 33%, 16%, 50%, and 33% for the heterogeneous stations, respectively. A significant breakpoint in almost all variables was obtained, with a strong decrease after 2008. Some differences between the results from the heterogeneous and homogeneous periods of data were found and discussed. This study can help in understanding the behaviour of past hydrological extremes in the study area and in planning for further studies in the future.

Keywords

• high and low discharges
• trend analysis
• modified Mann–Kendall test
• standard normal homogeneity
• Côte d’Ivoire