Modelling and forecasting reservoir sedimentation of irrigation dams in the Guinea Savannah Ecological Zone of Ghana

Abstract

Effective management of reservoir sedimentation requires models that can predict sedimentation of the reservoirs. In this study, linear regression, non-linear exponential regression and artificial neural network models have been developed for the forecasting of annual storage capacity loss of reservoirs in the Guinea Savannah Ecological Zone (GSEZ) of Ghana. Annual rainfall, inflows, trap efficiency and reservoir age were input parameters for the models whilst the output parameter was the annual sediment volume in the reservoirs. Twenty (20) years of reservoirs data with 70% data used for model training and 30% used for validation. The ANN model, the feed-forward, back-propagation algorithm Multi-Layer Perceptron model structure which best captured the pattern in the annual sediment volumes retained in the reservoirs ranged from 4-6-1 at Karni to 4-12-1 at Tono. The linear and nonlinear exponential regression models revealed that annual sediment volume retention increased with all four (4) input parameters whilst the rate of sedimentation in the reservoirs is a decreasing function of time. All the three (3) models developed were noted to be efficient and suitable for forecasting annual sedimentation of the studied reservoirs with accuracies above 76%. Forecasted sedimentation up to year 2038 (2019–2038) using the developed models revealed the total storage capacities of the reservoirs to be lost ranged from 13.83 to 50.07%, with 50% of the small and medium reservoirs filled with sediment deposits if no sedimentation control measures are taken to curb the phenomenon. HIGHLIGHTS The study developed two mathematical models using linear regression.; The study developed non-linear exponential regression.; The study developed an artificial neural network (ANN) model.; The study forecasted sedimentation up to year 2038 using the developed models.; The study revealed that the total storage capacities of the reservoirs to be lost ranged from 13.83 to 50.07%.;

Keywords

• artificial neural network
• forecasting
• irrigation dams
• linear regression
• nonlinear exponential regression
• reservoir sedimentation modelling