Perspectives of Electricity Production from Biogas in the European Union

Abstract

Biogas is a renewable energy source (RES). The aim of this research was to analyze the perspectives of electricity production from biogas in the European Union. The main source of information was data from Eurostat. We analyzed electricity production from biogas in the European Union (EU). The scope of this research was data from 2012 to 2021. First, we presented biogas production by feedstock type across the world. Then, we presented changes in electricity production from biogas in the EU. We used different methods to evaluate the changes in biogas production. First, we used the ARiMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) model to evaluate the stationarity of the time series. Our electricity production from biogas data proved to be stationary. Second, we elaborated on the prognosis of future changes in electricity production from biogas. The largest producer of biogas is the EU, and it is produced from crops, animal manure, and municipal solid waste. Our research found that the largest production from biogas in 2021 took place in Germany, Italy, and France. These countries have the greatest potential for electricity production from biogas, and they have spent significant funds on facilities and technology. Such countries as Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Finland, and Sweden increased their electricity production from biogas in 2021 compared to 2020. According to our prognosis, the global production of biogas will increase from 62.300 TWh to 64.000 TWh in 2019–2026 (2.7% increase). In 2022–2026, such countries as Estonia (60.4%), Latvia (29.6%), Croatia (27.6%), Slovenia (10.9%), and Poland (8.2%) will increase their electricity production from biogas the most. In 2022–2026, such countries as Italy (0.68%), Portugal (1.1%), Greece (1.5%), Slovakia (2.3%), and Germany (2.6%) will increase their electricity production from biogas the least. Only Romania (−17.6%), Finland (−11.5%), Lithuania (−9.1%), and Malta (−1.06%) will decrease their production of electricity from biogas in 2022–2026. Such countries as Bulgaria (2344%), Denmark (590.9%), Croatia (449%), and France (183%) increased biogas consumption in 2013–2022. A decrease in the inland consumption of biogas in 2013–2022 was observed in Spain, Cyprus, Latvia, Luxembourg, Austria, and Slovenia.

Keywords

• electricity production and consumption
• ARiMA model
• prognosis