Analysis of Solar Power Plant Electricity Production in Relation to the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Phenomenon in Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara

Abstract

One of the large-scale renewable energy potentials implemented in Indonesia is solar energy for electricity generation. The development of solar power plants (PLTS) can interact with the ocean and influence each other, such as the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on electricity production levels. This study aims to analyze the correlation between electricity production from PLTS and the influence of ENSO from 2019 to 2024 in Lombok Island, East Nusa Tenggara. Electricity production and solar irradiation data were obtained from the operational reports of PT PLN (Persero) Unit Induk Wilayah Nusa Tenggara Barat, while other data sources include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for ENSO data, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for sea surface temperature (SST) and solar irradiation data, as well as local sources for rainfall data. The studied PLTS stations include PLTS Pringgabaya, PLTS Sengkol, and PLTS Selong. The correlation coefficients for PLTS Pringgabaya, PLTS Sengkol, and PLTS Selong were 16.9%, 28.8%, and 17.8%, respectively. This weak correlation indicates that electricity production is more influenced by solar irradiation, SST, seasonal rainfall patterns, and monsoon winds. Solar irradiation is the primary factor in electricity production, as it has a stronger correlation compared to ENSO. Although ENSO’s impact is limited, there is a positive relationship between ENSO and electricity production, where El Niño increases electricity production, while La Niña tends to decrease it.