Management of business processes using stochastic simulation

Abstract

The paper deals with risks and uncertainties that are related to business processes. The risks and uncertainties (risk factors) can significantly influence organizational performance, value creation and long term-sustainability. Managers are often puzzled with making decisions in the environment of breakthrough discontinuities. The main outcome of the paper is the presentation of purposefully developed software tool that uses stochastic simulation of risks and uncertainties of business processes to support making optimum managerial decisions. This software is able to simulate any process risk factors that are describable by a mathematical model. The model was tested on the examples of production and investment cases. The research applied Business Process Modelling Notation Approach (BPMN) as well as mathematical and stochastic modelling. In addition, contextual interviews with company managers and risk specialists were used to get unbiased, reliable, and professional information on determination and analysis of process risk factors. The research was also supported by the evidence provided by the case study that illustrates software based decision-making process relating to opting for technology variant.