Wrapping input–output multipliers in confidence intervals

Abstract

Abstract Input–output multipliers are typically calculated as point estimates of the Leontief quantity model. From the previous literature, they can also be estimated (and their confidence intervals) directly from establishments’/industries’ inputs and outputs data by running an appropriate econometric regression. However, previous contributions relied on analyses carried out for 1 single year, one country/region and a reduced number of degrees of freedom. This paper tests the robustness of the previous literature by using instead a time series of large-scale inter-country supply, use and input–output database with more than one country and more than 1 year, as well as panel data econometrics.

Keywords

• Supply-use based econometric multipliers
• World input–output tables
• Confidence intervals
• Impact analysis
• Panel data econometrics