Current and Future Distribution of Camellia sinensis in China Estimated by MaxEnt

Abstract

Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) is an important cash crop. In the context of climate change, analyzing the current distribution of tea trees and climate change environmental variables to predict the potential distribution area of tea trees in the future can help decision-makers make appropriate planting decisions and promote sustainable management. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the limiting factors of tea tree growth and distribution under current and future climate change scenarios. The climate soil mixing model [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.934] performed excellently. The results showed that precipitation, temperature, slope, and soil factors all affected the distribution of suitable habitats for tea trees. Compared with the current distribution area of tea trees, under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the area of highly suitable habitats for tea trees will expand, especially in 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 years, and the suitable area will extend overall to the north of China, indicating that future climate change may create more new suitable habitats for tea production, especially in Shandong, Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan provinces. This study will provide important scientific insights for tea production decision-making, tea garden location selection, and future adaptation methods, and will help in the cultivation and transplantation of tea trees in the future.

Keywords

• camellia sinensis
• climate change
• latent geographical distribution
• maxent model
• tea plant
• variable selection