Cloud-Model-Based Method for Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters

Abstract

Mountain torrent disasters are common natural hazards that occur in mountainous terrains. The risk assessment of mountain torrent disasters entails a multi-criteria decision-making process and involves a transformation between qualitative and quantitative uncertainties. By incorporating probability statistics and fuzzy set theories, cloud model derived from information science, can aid the required transformation between the qualitative concepts and quantitative data. A cloud model-based approach has thus been proposed for practical risk assessment of mountain torrent disasters. The hybrid weighting method comprising the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy was employed for determining the weights of the indicators in the multi-criteria decision-making process. The degree of certainty associated with a particular risk level can be calculated through repeated assessments by employing the normal cloud model. The proposed approach was validated by comparing with the actual situation. The obtained results demonstrate that the cloud-model-based method is capable of indicating the risk level of mountain torrent disasters, as well as signifying the relative probability of risk at the same level. The proposed study provides guidelines for future risk management of basin floods and extends the scope of present risk-evaluation methods. Thus, the proposed study can be helpful in the precaution of mountain torrent hazards.

Keywords

• cloud model
• mountain torrent disaster
• flood
• risk assessment
• AHP
• entropy