In 2013, the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW) in Japan announced a suspension of the governmental recommendation for routine HPV vaccinations. In 2020, MHLW started individual notifications of HPV vaccine to the targeted girls. In April 2022, the governmental recommendation was restarted, and catch-up vaccinations started. We evaluated the benefits and limitations of the MHLW’s new vaccination strategies by estimating the lifetime risk for cervical cancer for each birth FY under different scenarios to suggest a measure for the vaccine suspension generation. It was revealed that catch-up immunization coverage among the unvaccinated must reach as high as 90% in FY2022, when the program begins, in order to reduce the risk of the females already over the targeted ages to the same level or lower than that of women born in FY1994-1999 who had high HPV vaccination rates. For women whose vaccination coverage waned because of their birth FYs, strong recommendations for cervical cancer screening should be implemented.
