A New Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Ship Collision with Riverside Bridges

Abstract

The configuration of riverside bridges, such as the spatial distribution, wading status, and ship accessibility of piers, is generally different from river-crossing bridges. Thus, the ship collision risk of riverside bridges cannot be assessed using conventional assessment methods applicable to river-crossing bridges. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to develop a new probabilistic method for assessing the risk of ship collision with riverside bridges. First, a fully probabilistic framework for assessing the ship-bridge collision risk is presented. Second, a new probabilistic hazard analysis model of ship collision with riverside bridges is proposed, based on a combined study of riverside bridge characterization and an improved yaw ship collision model. A simplified empirical model for evaluating ship-bridge collision force is then adopted, and the probabilistic distribution of the collision force is obtained based on Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, finite element simulation is conducted to estimate the collapse probability of piers. Finally, the method developed is applied to the probabilistic assessment of ship collision risk with riverside bridges located at Shabin Road, Chongqing, China. The results show that the risk of ship-bridge collision at Shabin Road is low to moderate. The example demonstrated indicates that the methodology introduced in this paper is capable of assessing the ship-bridge collision risk in a concise and rapid way.