Epidemiological Situation on Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Russian Federation in 2014–2023 and Short-Term Forecast of the Incidence for 2024

Abstract

The aim of the review was to conduct a comparative analysis of the epidemiological situation on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) over 2014–2023 in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation located in the European and Asian parts of the country and to give a forecast of incidence for 2024. The incidence of TBE in 2023 only marginally decreased as compared to the peak values in 2022, which leveled down the ten-year trend towards reduction. Grouping of the entities of the Russian Federation according to the average incidence of TBE over a decade made it possible to classify 17 of them as regions of low, 15 – of medium, and 17 – of high epidemiological risk. In general, the epidemiological situation regarding TBE is more unfavorable in the Asian part of the country. A list of species of Ixodidae ticks, the main vectors of the tick-borne encephalitis virus, is provided, as well as subtypes and genetic variants of the latter, identified in the European and Asian parts of the country. The peculiarities of the epidemiological situation on TBE and the scope of preventive measures undertaken in Russia in 2023 are considered. It is shown that there are no clearly outlined trends in the nature of changes in the incidence of TBE in endemic federal districts and entities of the country, and the expected incidence rates in 2024 will remain at the long-term average level.

Keywords

• tick-borne viral encephalitis
• morbidity
• epidemiological situation
• forecast