International Journal of Health Geographics (Oct 2016)
Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia
- Eric P. M. Grist,
- Jennifer A. Flegg,
- Georgina Humphreys,
- Ignacio Suay Mas,
- Tim J. C. Anderson,
- Elizabeth A. Ashley,
- Nicholas P. J. Day,
- Mehul Dhorda,
- Arjen M. Dondorp,
- M. Abul Faiz,
- Peter W. Gething,
- Tran T. Hien,
- Tin M. Hlaing,
- Mallika Imwong,
- Jean-Marie Kindermans,
- Richard J. Maude,
- Mayfong Mayxay,
- Marina McDew-White,
- Didier Menard,
- Shalini Nair,
- Francois Nosten,
- Paul N. Newton,
- Ric N. Price,
- Sasithon Pukrittayakamee,
- Shannon Takala-Harrison,
- Frank Smithuis,
- Nhien T. Nguyen,
- Kyaw M. Tun,
- Nicholas J. White,
- Benoit Witkowski,
- Charles J. Woodrow,
- Rick M. Fairhurst,
- Carol Hopkins Sibley,
- Philippe J. Guerin
Affiliations
- Eric P. M. Grist
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Jennifer A. Flegg
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Georgina Humphreys
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Ignacio Suay Mas
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Tim J. C. Anderson
- Department of Genetics, Texas Biomedical Research Institute
- Elizabeth A. Ashley
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Nicholas P. J. Day
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University
- Mehul Dhorda
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Arjen M. Dondorp
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- M. Abul Faiz
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University
- Peter W. Gething
- Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
- Tran T. Hien
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Tin M. Hlaing
- Defence Services Medical Research Centre
- Mallika Imwong
- Department of Molecular Tropical Medicine and Genetics, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
- Jean-Marie Kindermans
- Médecins Sans Frontières
- Richard J. Maude
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Mayfong Mayxay
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Marina McDew-White
- Department of Genetics, Texas Biomedical Research Institute
- Didier Menard
- Malaria Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia
- Shalini Nair
- Department of Genetics, Texas Biomedical Research Institute
- Francois Nosten
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Paul N. Newton
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Ric N. Price
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Sasithon Pukrittayakamee
- Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
- Shannon Takala-Harrison
- Institute for Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine
- Frank Smithuis
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Nhien T. Nguyen
- Hospital for Tropical Disease, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit
- Kyaw M. Tun
- Defence Services Medical Research Centre
- Nicholas J. White
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Benoit Witkowski
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Charles J. Woodrow
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford
- Rick M. Fairhurst
- Laboratory of Malaria and Vector Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health
- Carol Hopkins Sibley
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- Philippe J. Guerin
- WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN)
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-016-0064-6
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 15,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 10
Abstract
Abstract Background Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic ‘smart surveillance’ methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently. Methods The approach uses the ‘uncertainty’ map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling. Results The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Conclusion This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.
Keywords
