Modeling the control of COVID-19: impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors

Abstract

In this article we propose a dynamical model with seven compartments to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in China. The home quarantine strategy has played a vital role in controlling the disease spread. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is obtained. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed. Attention that the quarantine period must be long enough. Once the control strategy is removed, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. In the study, a comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors. The effectiveness of vaccination is also considered in the model. We design detailed vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of large scale vaccination.

Keywords

• covid-19
• dynamical model
• isolation strategy
• vaccination strategy
• meteorological index