Impact of climate change on allowable bearing capacity on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Climate change has a substantial impact on infrastructures in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and permafrost evolution were investigated in both the historical (1950–2005) and projected (2006–2099) periods. Then, an allowable bearing capacity model was used to discuss the allowable bearing capacity change on the QTP. Results show that the MAGT increased by 0.36 °C during 1950–2005. The MAGT will increase by 0.40 (RCP2.6), 0.79 (RCP4.5), 1.07 (RCP6.0), and 1.75 (RCP8.5) °C during 2006–2099. In addition, the permafrost area has decreased by 0.195 × 106 km2 in 1950–2005. The permafrost area will decrease by 0.232 × 106 (RCP2.6), 0.468 × 106 (RCP4.5), 0.564 × 106 (RCP6.0), and 0.803 × 106 (RCP8.5) km2 during 2006–2099. With the degradation of permafrost, the allowable bearing capacity in permafrost zones would decrease accordingly. The decreasing trend is 6 kPa per 10 years in 1950–2005, and will be 0.6 (RCP2.6), 5 (RCP4.5), 7 (RCP6.0), and 11 (RCP8.5) kPa per 10 years during 2006–2099. The most remarkable trend would be observed under RCP8.5. Meanwhile, some scientific advices for the design, construction, operation and maintenance of permafrost engineering in the context of climate change were provided. Keywords: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Climate change, Permafrost, Allowable bearing capacity