Analysis and Forecasting of Monthly Electricity Demand Time Series Using Pattern-Based Statistical Methods

Abstract

This article provides a solution based on statistical methods (ARIMA, ETS, and Prophet) to predict monthly power demand, which approximates the relationship between historical and future demand patterns. The energy demand time series shows seasonal fluctuation cycles, long-term trends, instability, and random noise. In order to simplify the prediction issue, the monthly load time series is represented by an annual cycle pattern, which unifies the data and filters the trends. A simulation study performed on the monthly electricity load time series for 35 European countries confirmed the high accuracy of the proposed models.

Keywords

• medium-term load forecasting
• pattern-based forecasting
• time-series preprocessing