Clean Sky 2 Technology Evaluator—Results of the First Air Transport System Level Assessments

Abstract

The authors have adjusted the DLR forecast model to evaluate the environmental benefits in terms of CO2 and NOx emissions of Clean Sky 2 technology innovations. The paper briefly describes the model employed: it consists of a passenger/flight volume forecast, a fleet model, and emission modelling. The novelty of the forecast approach compared to previous studies is that it is based on airport pairs instead of larger aggregates like countries or regions. Therefore, a separate breakdown on airports is unnecessary in the case of a more detailed analysis is needed, and it enables us to include airport capacity constraints which affect demand and flight volume, as well as the fleet development at constrained and unconstrained airports. We eventually present the forecast results in terms of passenger and flight volume, fleet development, and CO2 and NOx emissions. The results show that emissions can be reduced substantially by the use of Clean Sky 2 technology compared to a reference case which represents the status quo.

Keywords

• air transport forecasting
• Clean Sky 2
• Technology Evaluator
• emission modelling
• fleet modelling