Evaluating Changes in the Multiyear Predictability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Using Model Analogs since 1900

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the changes in the multiyear predictability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) since 1900. A newly developed method, the model-analog method, is used to hindcast the PDO from 1900 to 2015. Model-analog hindcast provides comparable PDO prediction skills with the traditional assimilation-initialized forecast but with much lower computational costs. Our results show that PDO prediction skills have significantly changed over time. Specifically, the PDO could skillfully be predicted up to 5 years in advance in 1910–1960, but it can only be predicted 2–3 years in advance after 1960. We attribute these changes to the strength of the re-emergence process, where deep oceanic mixed layer temperature anomalies from one winter reappear in the following winters. In the high-prediction-skill period, the stronger re-emergence process provides more predictable information, leading to enhanced multiyear prediction skills. Our study offers new insights into the multiyear predictability of the PDO over a long-time frame and sheds light on the reasons behind the low prediction skill of the PDO.

Keywords

• multiyear prediction
• Pacific decadal oscillation
• model-analog method