Disaster Precursor Identification and Early Warning of the Lishanyuan Landslide Based on Association Rule Mining

Abstract

It is the core prerequisite of landslide warning to mine short-term deformation patterns and extract disaster precursors from real-time and multi-source monitoring data. This study used the sliding window method and gray relation analysis to obtain features from multi-source, real-time monitoring data of the Lishanyuan landslide in Hunan Province, China. Then, the k-means algorithm with particle swarm optimization was used for clustering. Finally, the Apriori algorithm is used to mine strong association rules between the high-speed deformation process and rainfall features of this landslide to obtain short-term deformation patterns and precursors of the disaster. The data mining results show that the landslide has a high-speed deformation probability of more than 80% when rainfall occurs within 24 h and the cumulative rainfall is greater than 130.60 mm within 7 days. It is of great significance to extract the short-term deformation pattern of landslides by data mining technology to improve the accuracy and reliability of early warning.

Keywords

• disaster precursor identification
• early warning
• association rule mining
• particle swarm optimization
• k-means clustering
• Apriori algorithm