Mathematics (Sep 2020)

Modeling the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Incubation Period: Impact on Quarantine Policy

  • Daewoo Pak,
  • Klaus Langohr,
  • Jing Ning,
  • Jordi Cortés Martínez,
  • Guadalupe Gómez Melis,
  • Yu Shen

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/math8091631
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 8, no. 9
p. 1631

Abstract

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The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not always observed exactly due to uncertain onset times of infection and disease symptoms. In this paper, we demonstrate how to estimate the distribution of incubation and its association with patient demographic factors when the exact dates of infection and symptoms’ onset may not be observed. The findings from analysis of the confirmed COVID-19 cases indicate that age could be associated with the incubation period, and an age-specific quarantine policy might be more efficient than a unified one in confining COVID-19.

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