Probability and determinism in bridge management

Abstract

Probabilistic models and methods are replacing deterministic ones in many areas of theoretical and applied sciences. To keep up with this development, the engineering profession is revising design specifications and updating forecasting techniques, whereas economics is adopting increasingly complex statistical models. At the intersection between the two fields, the management of the infrastructure must use effectively all new tools without abandoning established and reliable existing practices. The gathering and evaluation of meaningful data are critical to decisions with profound consequences in terms of monetary cost and quality of life. The article presents the author's observations drawn from his bridge management experience in New York City over 30 years.

Keywords

• bridge
• deterioration determinism
• management
• probability
• uncertainty