Analyzing Bifurcations and Optimal Control Strategies in SIRS Epidemic Models: Insights from Theory and COVID-19 Data

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic behavior of an SIRS epidemic model in discrete time, focusing primarily on mathematical analysis. We identify two equilibrium points, disease-free and endemic, with our main focus on the stability of the endemic state. Using data from the US Department of Health and optimizing the SIRS model, we estimate model parameters and analyze two types of bifurcations: Flip and Transcritical. Bifurcation diagrams and curves are presented, employing the Carcasses method. for the Flip bifurcation and an implicit function approach for the Transcritical bifurcation. Finally, we apply constrained optimal control to the infection and recruitment rates in the discrete SIRS model. Pontryagin’s maximum principle is employed to determine the optimal controls. Utilizing COVID-19 data from the USA, we showcase the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy in mitigating the pandemic’s spread.

Keywords

• flip bifurcation
• transcritical bifurcation
• bifurcation curve
• discrete epidemic model
• stability
• numerical simulation