Triggering-runout modelling of rainfall-triggered debris flows: A case study in the Campania region, Italy

Abstract

Debris flows are unpredictable phenomena, listed among the hugest natural hazards, since they can cause important damages to humans and structures. Rainfall can trigger this type of movements, as it provokes the pore water pressure increasing, and so the soil strength reduction. The phenomenon modelling is a key aspect to predict and prevent damages. This article shows an approach for triggering and runout analysis: triggering is studied through an infinite slope stability model of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides, while runout is modelled using a depth-averaged numerical method, which replace the real heterogeneous flow with an equivalent homogeneous fluid. The work focuses the attention to events characterized by multiple triggering zones and releases converging on the same area, whose complexity is represented by the time- and space-distribution of the different flows. The proposed approach is applied to an event that hit part of the Campania region, Italy, in 1998, causing several damages. Two rheological laws are considered and compared for the analysis. The back-analysis allows the calibration of the rheological parameters and validation of the method. Results are discussed to identify the most suitable rheology for the benchmark event.