Predicting the effect of factors affecting economic growth of Iran with the approach of time-varying parameters -dynamic model averaging

Abstract

One of the most important goals of economic policymakers in every country is to achieve high economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims to identify the most important variables affecting Iran's economic growth in the period of 1981 - 2021 using the dynamic averaging model. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth. Also, the results showed that the manner and probability of these variables influencing economic growth over time are not constant and are subject to exogenous impulses such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, and sanctions. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth respectively.

Keywords

• economic growth
• current government expenditures
• tax revenues
• tvp-dma model