Three months of “Cumbre Vieja” – analysis of consequences of volcano eruption

Abstract

The work describes the methodology and results of analysis for the consequences assessment of eruption from Cumbre Vieja volcano in Canary Islands. The preliminary analysis of dispersion of emitted pollutants was performed using Lagrangian trajectories model. To estimate long-term outcomes of eruption in terms of deposition and concentration of eruption products the Eulerian model of air dispersion was used. The model uses data from Global Forecasting System meteorological model launched at the NCEP-NOAA centre. The average concentration and deposition of sulfur compounds as well as the probability and time of the pollution cloud reaching all European capitals were examined. In 90 days a cloud of pollutants (SO2, volcanic ashes) spread over the northern hemisphere. Pollution reached Africa, North Sea and Europe. With an average emission of 15,000 tons of SO2/day, the maximum calculated deposition to the Earth’s surface reached 0.8g/m2, while overall deposition – 35 kilotons in the domain area.

Keywords

• volcano eruption
• atmospheric dispersion
• eulerian model
• lagged-ensemble