Modeling Hospital Operating Theater Services: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Background: A hospital’s operating theater service system is a large-scale, complicated system that must be carefully managed to offer the best possible results for its patients. Unlike other industries such as manufacturing and logistics, system dynamics (SD) methodologies are not extensively applied in hospital operating theaters. This study deals with the future development and possible future scenarios for hospital operating rooms in Bangladesh. Methods: Due to demographic dynamics and demographic processes, increased pressures on hospital care are expected in Bangladesh. The SD model anticipates possible future scenarios, reconciles service capacities and the variability of patient demand, and reduces patient congestion and waiting times in the hospital area. This study introduces a causal loop diagram to show a causal link between the hospital operating theater system variables. It also introduces a stock flow diagram to understand the dynamic behavior of the system. Results: The model validation testing reports that in extreme conditions, such as a 50% reduction in the patient arrival rate, the model is valid and runs as usual. Conclusions: This first work of SD modeling for hospital operating theater systems can help healthcare managers, decision makers, or researchers of any responsibility level make better predictions in order to reduce patient waiting times and backlogs and make appropriate decisions.

Keywords

• causal loop diagram
• Forrester’s investigations
• model validation
• patient backlog
• stock flow diagram