Flood Flow Frequency Model Selection Using L-moment Method in Arid and Semi Arid Regions of Iran

Abstract

Statistical frequency analysis is the most common procedure for the analysis of flood data at a gauged location thatin first step it is needed to select a model to represent the population. Among them, the central moment has been themost common and widely used, and with the using of computers, the application of the maximum likelihood hasincreased. This research was carried out in order to recognition of suitable probability distributions with perviouscommon methods. In order to investigate of suitable probability distribution for flood flow, using L-moment methodthrough the existing hydrometric stations in the region, 17 hydrometric stations were selected for peak dischargesdata studies. According to results of this research for peak discharge, LP3 distribution and ordinary moment method,P3 distribution and L-moment method, LN2 and LN3 distributions and ordinary method have been suitabledistinguished for 53%, 35%, 6% and 6% of stations, respectively. We concluded that L-moment method is suitable todetermine peak series probability distributions in the Iran central plateau and P3 is the best probability distribution formodeling peak series in this region.

Keywords

• flood flow
• frequency distribution function
• linear moment
• maximum likelihood
• ordinary moment