On the relation between the crude oil market and pandemic Covid-19

Abstract

Purpose – The crude oil market has experienced an unprecedented overreaction in the first half of the pandemic year 2020. This study aims to show the performance of the global crude oil market amid Covid-19 and spillover relations with other asset classes. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ various pandemic outbreak indicators to show the overreaction of the crude oil market due to Covid-19 infection. The analysis also presents market connectedness and spillover relations between the crude oil market and other asset classes. Findings – One of the essential findings the authors report is that the crude oil market remains more responsive to pandemic fake news. The shock of the global pandemic panic index and pandemic sentiment index appears to be more promising. It has also been noticed that the energy trader's sentiment (OVX and OIV) was measured at a too high level within the Covid-19 outbreak. Volatility spillover analysis shows that crude oil and other market are closely connected, and the total connectedness index directs on average 35% contribution from spillover. During the initial growth of the infection, other macroeconomic and political events remained to favor the market. The second phase amidst the pandemic outbreak harms the global crude oil market. The authors find that infectious diseases increase investor panic and anxiety. Practical implications – The crude oil investors' sentiment index OVX indicates fear and panic due to infectious diseases and lack of hedge funds to protect energy investments. The unparalleled overreaction of the investors gauged in OVX indicates market participants have paid an excessive put option (protection) premium over the contagious outbreak of the infectious disease. Originality/value – The empirical model and result reported amid Covid-19 are novel in terms of employing a news-based index of the pandemic, which are based on the content analysis and text search using natural processing language with the aid of computer algorithms. 研究目的 – 原油市場在流行病肆虐的2020年的頭半年經歷史無前例的過度反應。本文旨在顯示全球原油市場在2019冠狀病毒病流行期間的表現及原油市場與其它資產類別之溢出關係. 研究設計/方法/理念 – 我們使用各種大流行病爆發的指標，來顯示原油市場因2019冠狀病毒病的感染而過度反應。我們的分析亦涉及市場的關聯性及原油市場與其它資產類別之溢出關係. 研究結果 – 我們其中一個基本的發現是: 原油市場仍對大流行病的虛假新聞有更迅速的反應。全球大流行病恐慌性指數及大流行病情緒指數所帶來的震驚似乎是有希望的。大家亦察覺，能源交易商的情緒(OVX及OIV) 在2019冠狀病毒病爆發期間被測量為處於太高的水平。波動溢出分析顯示、原油與其它市場有密切的關係，而總關聯度指數引導平均35%來自溢出量的作用。在感染傳播初期，其它的宏觀經濟和政治事件仍對市場有利。在大流行病爆發期間的第二階段則損害全球原油市場。我們發現，傳染病會增加投資者的恐慌和焦慮. 實際的意義 – 原油投資者的情緒指數OVX顯示因傳染病及因缺乏對沖基金來保障能源投資而帶來的懼怕和恐慌。於OVX測算到的投資者空前的過度反應顯示市場參與者就這傳染病的感染爆發付出過量的賣權(保障)權利金. 研究的原創性 – 我們的經驗模型和在2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間匯報的研究結果，從使用以新聞為基礎的流行病指數的角度而言是新穎的。而這些全以內容分析和正文搜尋為基礎、使用自然語言處理，並輔以計算機算法.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Crude oil
• Investors' sentiment
• Pandemic
• OVX
• VIX