Internal Crack Prediction of Continuous Casting Billet Based on Principal Component Analysis and Deep Neural Network

Abstract

The accurate prediction of internal cracks in steel billets is of great importance for the stable production of continuous casting. However, it is challenging, owing to the strong nonlinearity, and coupling among continuous casting process parameters. In this study, an internal crack prediction model based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and deep neural network (DNN) was proposed by collecting sufficient industrial data. PCA was used to reduce the dimensionality of the factors influencing the internal cracks, and the obtained principal components were used as DNN input variables. The 5-fold cross-validation results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the DNN model is 92.2%, which is higher than those of the decision tree (DT), extreme learning machine (ELM), and backpropagation (BP) neural network models. Moreover, the variance analysis showed that the prediction results of the DNN model were more stable. The PCA-DNN model can provide a useful reference for real production, owing to its strong learning ability and fault-tolerant ability.

Keywords

• continuous casting
• internal crack prediction
• principal component analysis
• dimension reduction
• deep neural network