Snowmelt‐Radiation Feedback Impact on Western U.S. Streamflow

Abstract

Abstract Ongoing runoff declines in the Colorado River Basin have been shown to be predominately driven by decreasing albedo from warming‐driven snow‐cover loss, especially in late‐spring (hereafter snowmelt‐radiation feedback). Here, we explore the feedback's impact on annual runoff sensitivity to warming across the western U.S. (WUS) using hydrologic model simulations. For 1°C uniform warming, we show that runoff is most sensitive to warming in modestly snow‐covered, interior mountain headwaters, especially the Rocky Mountains. Runoff sensitivities are most associated with the snowmelt‐radiation feedback in basins with runoff coefficients between 0.2 and 0.6, where runoff sensitivity increases with more snow and lower winter temperature. In aggregate, ∼48% of WUS runoff sensitivity is attributable to the snowmelt‐radiation feedback and is especially pronounced in the warming‐sensitive river basins (annual runoff decreases >5%/°C). We also show that the feedback's impact decreases with increasing temperature, which has unresolved implications for streamflow declines in a less‐snow future.

Keywords

• climate warming
• water resources
• runoff sensitivity
• snowmelt‐radiation feedback
• evapotranspiration
• western U.S