ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC CRISES AND WAR ON THE ACTIVITIES OF JSC “UKRZALIZNYTSIA”

Abstract

Despite the substantial threat that macroeconomic crisis and war pose to the economic activity of organizations, little attention is paid in the existing literature to the rigorous identification and quantification of such effects. Given this fact, the purpose of the study is to rigorously estimate and quantify the effects of military aggression on the economic activity of organizations in the context of macroeconomic crises. The research methodology includes empirical and quantitative analysis. The empirical analysis was conducted on the basis of official statistical data of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. Quantitative analysis is based on Event Study and Difference-in-Difference methods to quantify the impact of macroeconomic crises and the war on the organization. Quantitative estimates of the negative impacts of two macroeconomic crises (2009 and 2014–2015) and military action (which began in 2014, but does not take into account its new stage – war from 2022) in Ukraine on the freight traffic of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia" were obtained. The application of the proposed approach to assessing the effect of war due to its universality is possible for the needs and goals not only of transport companies but also of other organizations. The novelty – among the available developments on this issue, a formal assessment of the effect of military aggression which began in 2014 in the macroeconomic crises’ context was conducted for the first time using the existing methods, which allows obtaining parameter estimates resistant to individual-specific and time-specific heterogeneity.

Keywords

• macroeconomic crisis
• war
• organization
• event study method
• difference-in-difference method.