Evaluation of Progression From Preclinical to Systemic Autoimmune Rheumatic Disease: Novel Use of the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology/American College of Rheumatology Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Classification Criteria as an Outcome Measure

Abstract

Objective Our objective was to evaluate the development of a systemic autoimmune rheumatic disease (SARD) in undifferentiated and asymptomatic individuals with antinuclear antibodies (ANAs). We comparatively evaluated those who did and did not develop a SARD and fulfillment of classification criteria. Methods We conducted a cohort study of undifferentiated and asymptomatic patients with ANAs who were assessed for the development of a SARD. The primary outcome was a diagnosis of a SARD over a two‐year period. We assessed fulfillment of classification criteria. Risk ratios (RRs) were used to evaluate differences among those who did and did not progress to a SARD. Results We evaluated 207 asymptomatic ANA‐positive or undifferentiated patients, of whom 23 (11%) progressed to a SARD, whereas 187 (89%) did not progress. Progressors developed systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (n = 11 [48%]), Sjögren disease (n = 5 [22%]), systemic sclerosis (n = 3 [13%]), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 1 [4%]), and from ANA‐positive to undifferentiated connective tissue disease (n = 3 [13%]). Fever (RR 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8–0.93) and antiphospholipid antibodies (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.87–0.93) occurred less frequently, whereas arthritis (RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.20–2.55) occurred more frequently in progressors. Progressors to SLE had arthritis (91%), whereas none developed delirium, psychosis, or nephritis. Among patients with SLE, 100% fulfilled the EULAR/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE criteria (sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 100%), whereas 73% fulfilled the 1997 ACR SLE criteria (sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 98.9%). Conclusion Most undifferentiated/asymptomatic individuals with ANA do not progress to a SARD over a two‐year period. SLE progressors appear to have mild disease in the short term. The EULAR/ACR SLE criteria have improved ability to identify those who develop SLE.