Ultimate Time Survival Probability in Three-Risk Discrete Time Risk Model

Abstract

In this paper, we prove recursive formulas for ultimate time survival probability when three random claims X , Y , Z in the discrete time risk model occur in a special way. Namely, we suppose that claim X occurs at each moment of time t ∈ { 1 , 2 , … } , claim Y additionally occurs at even moments of time t ∈ { 2 , 4 , … } and claim Z additionally occurs at every moment of time, which is a multiple of three t ∈ { 3 , 6 , … } . Under such assumptions, the model that is obtained is called the three-risk discrete time model. Such a model is a particular case of a nonhomogeneous risk renewal model. The sequence of claims has the form { X , X + Y , X + Z , X + Y , X , X + Y + Z , … } . Using the recursive formulas, algorithms were developed to calculate the exact values of survival probabilities for the three-risk discrete time model. The running of algorithms is illustrated via numerical examples.

Keywords

• multi-risk model
• discrete-time risk model
• ruin probability
• survival probability
• ultimate time
• net profit condition