Simulating land-use change and its effect on biodiversity conservation in a watershed in northwest China

Abstract

Introduction: Land-use management strategies play a major role in biodiversity change. In many parts of the world, local governments are under increasing pressure to regulate human activity to mitigate negative impacts on ecosystems. Outcomes/other: This study aimed to analyze the effects of different land-use patterns on biodiversity change across a typical artificial desert watershed. We first analyzed land-cover change based on past and future management scenarios in a watershed spanning Gaotai, Linze, and Ganzhou counties in northwest China. We then analyzed the effect of different land-use patterns on biodiversity change in the watershed. We found that the crucial land-cover changes are likely to occur in the wetland reserves and areas established for the Grain for Green Project around the oases, and such changes could affect biodiversity throughout the entire watershed landscape. Discussion: The use of spatial analysis to illustrate explicit changes in ecosystems is useful in fostering biodiversity awareness and the need for decision-making at different scales. Conclusion: Thus, these findings indicate that land-use management strategies for the middle and southeast parts of the watershed are particularly important for future management of biodiversity and the integrated ecosystem services of the entire watershed landscape.

Keywords

• Land-use management
• biodiversity
• scenario analysis
• spatial modeling