Estimating and Mapping Extreme Ice Accretion Hazard and Load Due to Freezing Rain at Canadian Sites

Abstract

Abstract The ice accretion load in Canadian structural design codes is developed based on an operational ice accretion prediction model. In the present study, three models are employed to predict the ice accretion amount on a flat surface and horizontal wire at Canadian sites. The results confirm that the model used by Canadian practice for predicting ice accretion leads to a conservative estimate as compared to the remaining two models. The results also indicate that the use of the Gumbel distribution for the annual maximum ice accretion is adequate for regions prone to ice accretion and that the lognormal distribution may be considered for regions with a moderate or negligible amount of ice accretion. Maps of the ice accretion hazard at five selected Canadian sites are developed. Statistical analysis of an equivalent wind speed that is concurrent with the iced wire is carried out, showing that the concurrent wind speed for the 50-year return period value of the annual maximum ice accretion amount is smaller than the 50-year return period value of the annual maximum wind speed. It is shown that the statistical characteristics of the annual maximum concurrent wind speed on iced wire differ from that of the annual maximum wind speed.

Keywords

• Canada
• Concurrent wind speed
• Hazard mapping
• Ice accretion
• Probabilistic analysis