Built-up areas are expanding faster than population growth: regional patterns and trajectories in Europe

Abstract

ABSTRACTHuman settlements typically expand to accommodate additional housing demand from a growing population and their socio-economic activities. This implies consumption of land, a limited resource necessary for many other services. The efficiency of this exploitation in relation to demographic trends is key to preserve land and natural capital that could otherwise be degraded. Here, we assess patterns of population and built-up area growth over the period 2000–2015, using demographic statistics and remote-sensing data. We find that on average, in the EU27, built-up areas grew at a faster pace than population and that they expanded even in regions where population has declined. We quantify the impact of future population growth under different assumptions on future built-up efficiency. Keeping current built-up per capita fixed could preserve up to 9,000 km2 of land until 2030, especially outside predominantly urban regions, where land use efficiency is generally low and has been declining.

Keywords

• Land use efficiency
• marginal land consumption
• urban sprawl
• built-up growth scenarios
• Europe EU27
• GHSL