Semiparametric model selection for identification of environmental covariates related to adult groundfish catches and weights

Abstract

Abstract Ecologists and fisheries managers are interested in monitoring economically important marine fish species and using this data to inform management strategies. Determining environmental factors that best predict changes in these populations, particularly under rapid climate change, are a priority. I illustrate the application of the least squares-based spline estimation and group LASSO (LSSGLASSO) procedure for selection of coefficient functions in single index varying coefficient models (SIVCMs) on an ecological data set that includes spatiotemporal environmental covariates suspected to play a role in the catches and weights of six groundfish species. Temporal trends in variable selection were apparent, though the selection of variables was largely unrelated to common North Pacific climate indices. These results indicate that the strength of an environmental variable’s effect on a groundfish population may change over time, and not necessarily in-step with known low-frequency patterns of ocean-climate variability commonly attributable to large-scale regime shifts in the North Pacific. My application of the LSSGLASSO procedure for SIVCMs to deep water species using environmental data from various sources illustrates how variable selection with a flexible model structure can produce informative inference for remote and hard-to-reach animal populations.