Complex assessment of variability for the sea surface temperature in the North-West Pacific in July-September 1950-2014

Abstract

Trend significance is evaluated and periodicities are revealed for time series of the sea surface temperature in the North-West Pacific. The dominant periods are selected using Fourier method under the assumption of linear trend existing over sufficiently large fluctuations. On the background of rapid warming in the 1983-2014, increasing fluctuations of summer SST were observed, with 7-year cycle domination, which were gradually shifted to August-September. Patterns of atmospheric circulation preceding to events of extreme thermal regime in summer are identified using the method of interval recognition: the extreme warm thermal regimes are formed mainly by subtropical anticyclones having a tendency to strengthen, and the extreme cold regimes are conditioned by strengthening of summer monsoon in its first stage.

Keywords

• trend significance
• dominant periodicity
• sea surface temperature
• mechanism of extreme regime
• subtropical anticyclone
• fourier method
• interval recognition method