IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN - UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ON ROMANIAN INFLATION

Abstract

The objective of the paper was to study the effects of the Russian –Ukrainian conflict on Romanian inflation using the energy shock’s pass-through effect to inflation in Europe after the invasion. A monthly time series dataset is used for econometric analysis, and the data was collected from EUROSTAT, IMF and BNR databases. Using a Cochrane–Orcutt AR (1) regression with iterated estimates that control for autocorrelated error terms, we measured how variations in the price of coal, gas, and oil affected the harmonized consumer price index (HCPI). Our results suggest that oil price increases will lead to an increase in HIPC in Romania. Gas prices had an inverse relationship with HIPC in the analyzed period. The data however did not suggest a relation between coal price and inflation, in the studied period. The energy shock that occurred in Europe accounted in higher prices for gasoline, heating, and electricity on the short run, but there is no evidence that this inflationary pressure will affect long run household inflation.

Keywords

• energy shock
• gas price
• oil price
• inflation
• romania