Epidemics (Mar 2024)

Age-time-specific transmission of hand-foot-and-mouth disease enterovirus serotypes in Vietnam: A catalytic model with maternal immunity

  • Yining Chen,
  • Lam Anh Nguyet,
  • Le Nguyen Thanh Nhan,
  • Phan Tu Qui,
  • Le Nguyen Truc Nhu,
  • Nguyen Thi Thu Hong,
  • Nguyen Thi Han Ny,
  • Nguyen To Anh,
  • Le Kim Thanh,
  • Huynh Thi Phuong,
  • Nguyen Ha Thao Vy,
  • Nguyen Thi Le Thanh,
  • Truong Huu Khanh,
  • Nguyen Thanh Hung,
  • Do Chau Viet,
  • Nguyen Tran Nam,
  • Nguyen Van Vinh Chau,
  • H. Rogier van Doorn,
  • Le Van Tan,
  • Hannah Clapham

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 46
p. 100754

Abstract

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Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in Vietnam. To develop effective interventions and efficient vaccination programs, we inferred the age-time-specific transmission patterns of HFMD serotypes enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A10 (CV-A10), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from a case data collected during 2013–2018 and a serological survey data collected in 2015 and 2017. We proposed a catalytic model framework with good adaptability to incorporate maternal immunity using various mathematical functions. Our results indicate the high-level transmission of CV-A6 and CV-A10 which is not obvious in the case data, due to the variation of disease severity across serotypes. Our results provide statistical evidence supporting the strong association between severe illness and CV-A6 and EV-A71 infections. The HFMD dynamic pattern presents a cyclical pattern with large outbreaks followed by a decline in subsequent years. Additionally, we identify the age group with highest risk of infection as 1-2 years and emphasise the risk of future outbreaks as over 50% of children aged 6-7 years were estimated to be susceptible to CV-A16 and EV-A71. Our study highlights the importance of multivalent vaccines and active surveillance for different serotypes, supports early vaccination prior to 1 year old, and points out the potential utility for vaccinating children older than 5 years old in Vietnam.

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